Note

Thank you very much for your interest in our website.

Since 01/12/16 Microsoft no longer provides security updates or technical support for old versions of Internet Explorer. Regular security updates contribute to the protection.

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support

We recommend that you update your browser to view our website in full, e.g. with Google Chrome, Mozilla Firefox or Apple Safari.

If you would like to continue using Internet Explorer, please note that the content may not be displayed correctly due to lack of support.

Thank you for your understanding,
Your MainFirst Team

Verstanden, Seite trotzdem benutzen
False

Into the summer: where are the summer temperatures for investors?

Editorial by Thomas Meier and Christos Sitounis

The summer is just around the corner and equity markets are heading towards new highs. However, there is little sign of summer highs across the board. Individual names and sectors, especially the technology sector in the US, are setting the tone for the summer at the moment. Rays of light are starting to appear in the capital market, which has been in the grip of winter since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the rapid succession of interest rate hikes by central banks.

IPOs are the first sign of a thaw. A growing number of companies want to go public; successful IPOs include the Swiss dermatology specialist Galderm and the German retail company Douglas. Overall, the number of IPOs has fallen sharply since the financial crisis. Within the OECD alone, more than 30,000 companies have disappeared from the stock market since 2005. In the EU, the number of listings fell by 39.7% up to 2020.

The pipeline of IPO candidates looks promising, with the pending IPO of Shein for an estimated EUR 58 billion breaking the ice in the e-commerce segment. Besides IPOs, we are seeing greater M&A activity in general. The level of M&A activity has fallen significantly over the past year, providing new potential for undervalued companies and their investors, particularly in Europe. According to Bain & Company, the volume of M&A transactions was down 15% last year, to USD 3.2 trillion, the lowest it has been in a decade. The stage is thus set for a fresh spate of takeovers from which investors can benefit. The consolidation under way in the capital market is increasingly being driven by private equity. According to McKinsey, record inflows into the private equity funds launched have resulted in a capital stock of USD 3.7 trillion. This capital will be invested in the coming years and will trigger a new wave of takeovers in the stock market. The falling level of financing is already reflecting in the first deals in Europe. Traditional companies such as Novartis are competing for listed companies, as the current takeover of MorphoSys shows.

The signs for a sunny summer are good, but what conditions are needed? The positive economic and business data in Europe (purchasing managers’ indices, employment, logistics issues, etc.) and the onset of normalisation in the US, combined with improved refinancing options and terms, are likely to result in further equity market highs. In addition, not only the men’s European Football Championship but also the ECB’s upcoming change of interest rate policy will lift the mood among market participants.

Inflation is down on both sides of the Atlantic, but pose a dilemma for central banks. If interest rates are cut too soon, there is a risk that inflation will spiral out of control again due to robust economic growth. The result would be a painful correction in capital markets, akin to a severe sunburn. Furthermore, the trade conflict with China, the US presidential election later this year as well as geopolitical conflicts are making it difficult for central banks to maintain foresight.

Investors should not only keep an eye out for rays of sunshine but also seek respite in the shade. On the equity market, Small and mid cap companies are currently leading a shadowy existence. They are trading at an average discount of 30% on their own track record over the past two decades. In Europe, the interest rate policy, weak economic data and the geopolitical uncertainties were the main drivers. Now, at least there are signs of a trend reversal in interest rates and growth. This should give investors the chance to get in on attractive business models at relatively cheap valuations. Even though the current rainfall doesn’t suggest it: the odds are in favour of a glorious summer on the capital market.

Go to Newsroom

Legal notices

This is a marketing communication.

This marketing communication is for information purposes only and provides the addressee with guidance on our products, concepts and ideas. This does not form the basis for any purchase, sale, hedging, transfer or mortgaging of assets. None of the information contained herein constitutes an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument nor is it based on a consideration of the personal circumstances of the addressee. It is also not the result of an objective or independent analysis. MainFirst makes no express or implied warranty or representation as to the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or marketability of any information provided to the addressee in webinars, podcasts or newsletters. The addressee acknowledges that our products and concepts may be intended for different categories of investors. The criteria are based exclusively on the currently valid sales prospectus. This marketing communication is not intended for a specific group of addressees. Each addressee must therefore inform themselves individually and under their own responsibility about the relevant provisions of the currently valid sales documents, on the basis of which the purchase of shares is exclusively based. Neither the content provided nor our marketing communications constitute binding promises or guarantees of future results. No advisory relationship is established either by reading or listening to the content. All contents are for information purposes only and cannot replace professional and individual investment advice. The addressee has requested the newsletter, has registered for a webinar or podcast, or uses other digital marketing media on their own initiative and at their own risk. The addressee and participant accept that digital marketing formats are technically produced and made available to the participant by an external information provider that has no relationship with MainFirst. Access to and participation in digital marketing formats takes place via internet-based infrastructures. MainFirst accepts no liability for any interruptions, cancellations, disruptions, suspensions, non-fulfilment, or delays related to the provision of the digital marketing formats. The participant acknowledges and accepts that when participating in digital marketing formats, personal data can be viewed, recorded, and transmitted by the information provider. MainFirst is not liable for any breaches of data protection obligations by the information provider. Digital marketing formats may only be accessed and visited in countries in which their distribution and access is permitted by law.
For detailed information on the opportunities and risks associated with our products, please refer to the current sales prospectus. The statutory sales documents (sales prospectus, key information documents (PRIIPs-KIDs), semi-annual and annual reports), which provide detailed information on the purchase of units and the associated risks, form the sole authoritative and binding basis for the purchase of units. The aforementioned sales documents in German (as well as in unofficial translations in other languages) can be found at www.mainfirst.com and are available free of charge from the investment company ETHENEA Independent Investors S.A. and the custodian bank, as well as from the respective national paying or information agents and from the representative in Switzerland. These are:
Austria, Belgium, Germany, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg: DZ PRIVATBANK S.A., 4, rue Thomas Edison, L-1445 Strassen, Luxembourg; France: Société Générale Securities Services, Société anonyme, 29 boulevard Haussmann, 75009 Paris; Italy: Allfunds Bank Milan, Via Bocchetto, 6, 20123 Milano; SGSS S.p.A., Via Benigno Crespi 19A-MAC2, 20159 Milano; Spain: Société Générale Securities Services Sucursal en Espana, Plaza Pablo Ruiz Picasso, 1, 28020 Madrid; Switzerland: Representative: IPConcept (Schweiz) AG, Münsterhof 12, CH-8022 Zürich; Paying Agent: DZ PRIVATBANK (Schweiz) AG, Münsterhof 12, CH-8022 Zürich.
The investment company may terminate existing distribution agreements with third parties or withdraw distribution licences for strategic or statutory reasons, subject to compliance with any deadlines. Investors can obtain information about their rights from the website www.ethenea.com and from the sales prospectus. The information is available in both German and English, as well as in other languages in individual cases. Explicit reference is made to the detailed risk descriptions in the sales prospectus.
This publication is subject to copyright, trademark and intellectual property rights. Any reproduction, distribution, provision for downloading or online accessibility, inclusion in other websites, or publication in whole or in part, in modified or unmodified form, is only permitted with the prior written consent of MainFirst.

Copyright © 2024 MainFirst Group (consisting of companies belonging to MainFirst Holding AG, herein „MainFirst“). All rights reserved.