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Wealth effect – economic support or risk?

Editorial from Team Global Dividend

The sheer scale of the figure is astonishing: according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank, the net wealth of private US households amounts to an incredible 176,300,000,000,000 USD – or 176.3 trillion or 176,300 billion USD.
25 years ago, this figure stood at just 44 trillion USD. These almost breathtaking sums alone allow for a wide range of interpretations. Naturally, these figures also provide scope for further interpretation and analysis.
On the one hand, they give rise to structural impulses; on the other hand, they may also create short-term opportunities and risks for the economic environment.

In the longer term, this development indicates that the net private wealth of Americans has grown by approximately 5.8% each year. This is impressive given that the last quarter of a century has not been without structural crises, as evidenced by the dot-com bubble burst, the housing and financial crisis, and the Coronavirus pandemic.
The bold approach of Americans, more than half of whom are invested in the stock market, either directly or indirectly, according to various studies, has paid off. Unlike in Germany, for example, this allocation does not focus on cash, demand deposits or insurance claims. Not only does this generate disproportionate performance, it can also significantly increase assets in real terms, i.e. after deducting inflation.
Various long-term conclusions can be drawn from this. Firstly, it confirms that a portfolio focused on productive assets can generate considerable long-term added value. This is particularly significant for countries that have not yet transitioned to a funded pension system.

However, there are also opportunities and risks in the short term. One positive aspect at present is the continued stability of private consumption in the United States, which some market participants attribute to the wealth effect despite subdued economic growth.
This is because, despite the turbulence caused by the introduction of tariffs, stock markets are reaching new highs and households are continuing to consume at a high level. However, increased participation by private investors in the stock market or in new assets such as cryptocurrencies also entails risks. For example, a downturn in the capital markets could contribute to negative consumer behaviour, as investors feel poorer after price losses and reduce their consumption.
The wealth effect is certainly not a one-way street and can reinforce short-term trends. Nevertheless, the long-term orientation of productive assets remains the right answer.

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