Growth prospects are improving globally. In light of this, inflation data will remain persistently higher than the central bank target despite the successes in previous quarters. Nevertheless, both the ECB and the Fed will follow Switzerland’s example and start cutting interest rates in June. In our view, the biggest future risk apart from the ongoing geopolitical challenges is the problem of national debt.

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Central banks are looking at the data, while politicians are gearing up for elections. Around 70 countries are set to go to the polls. These elections will have a impact. Monetary policy, economy and geopolitical tensions will further affect the economy. While the US economy remains an economic powerhouse, Europe and China seem unable to get out of the starting blocks. Interest rate policy in Europe and political intervention in China could stimulate the economy further.